Empowering Health technology assessments through Population-adjusted indirect comparisons

As health technology assessment (HTA) becomes increasingly central to healthcare decision-making, population-adjusted indirect comparisons (PAICs) have emerged as critical tools. These methods allow researchers to compare treatments across trials with varying populations, addressing situations where head-to-head comparisons are unavailable or impractical. Here, we will examine the development of PAICs, their role in network meta-analysis (NMA), and the ongoing debates around their application. 

The need for population adjustments
When it comes to healthcare decision-making, one goal is to compare treatments fairly and accurately. But trials often differ in their populations—patients might vary in terms of age, severity of illness, or prior treatment experience. Without population adjustment, indirect comparisons between trials can be biased, leading to flawed treatment recommendations.
 

This is where PAICs come into play. By adjusting for differences in trial populations, these methods enable indirect comparisons that aim to be as fair and accurate as possible in the absence of direct head-to-head trials.  

Core methods for population adjustment 

There are two widely recognized methods for population-adjusted indirect comparisons: 

  1. 1. Matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC): This method uses individual patient data (IPD) from one trial to reweight patients based on baseline characteristics, aligning them with those from another trial. The method is suitable when there is good overlap between covariate distributions in the different populations. 
  2. 2. Simulated treatment comparison (STC): In contrast to MAIC, STC uses covariate-adjustment to model the relationship between patient characteristics and outcomes, enabling treatment comparisons across different populations. Due to the model’s ability to extrapolate, this can be more useful where covariate overlap is poor. 

Both of these methods can be applied in anchored or unanchored settings. Anchored comparisons use a common comparator (e.g. standard of care) between trials, and therefore only need to adjust for effect modifying covariates, whereas unanchored comparisons do not, and must adjust for effect modifying covariates and prognostic factors. This makes it more challenging to evaluate their robustness, and therefore they are less reliable. Both methods were developed for pairwise indirect comparisons only. 



The rise of multi-level network meta-regression (ML-NMR)
 

A major recent development in population adjustment is the multi-level network meta-regression (ML-NMR). This method integrates both IPD and aggregate data within a network meta-analysis framework, offering more comprehensive population adjustments than MAIC or STC alone. ML-NMR allows for adjusting multiple effect modifiers across a network of treatments, avoids aggregation bias and depending on data availability and assumptions regarding shared effect modification, produces estimates in any target population for decision-making. 

Challenges in population-adjusted indirect comparisons 

While PAIC methods like MAIC, STC, and ML-NMR have revolutionized health technology assessments, they are not without challenges: 

  • 1. Unanchored comparisons: Unanchored comparisons, where there is no common comparator between trials, are particularly prone to bias. Even with population adjustment, unobserved or missing covariates can introduce biases whose direction and magnitude is difficult to assess. Researchers have called for better ways to quantify this bias and ensure robust decision-making​. 
  • 2. Method selection: There is no one-size-fits-all solution. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. The most appropriate method should be determined on a case-by-case basis, considering the specific context of the analysis​. 


The future of population adjustment 

The demand for population-adjusted analyses is likely to increase as joint clinical assessments (JCA) become the standard for health technology assessments across the European Union. JCA aims to streamline assessments across multiple countries, and PAIC methods will be vital in ensuring that treatment comparisons are fair and applicable to diverse populations​. 

Moving forward, further innovation in population adjustment methods is expected, particularly in the context of real-world data and personalized medicine. Advances in methods like ML-NMR are exciting, but they must be balanced with the need for transparency and simplicity in clinical practice.  

Conclusion 

Population-adjusted indirect comparisons are transforming health technology assessments, enabling more precise and relevant treatment comparisons across varied patient populations. As methods like MAIC, STC, and ML-NMR continue to evolve, they will play an increasingly important role in ensuring that healthcare decisions are based on robust and reliable evidence. 

The key challenge for analysts and policymakers alike will be to navigate the complexities of these methods, ensuring that the right tools are used in the right contexts while avoiding over-reliance on unproven assumptions. The future of healthcare decision-making lies in balancing methodological innovation with practical, patient-centered applications.   


The ConnectHEOR team is at the forefront of ITC methodologies and will be presenting multiple research pieces at the upcoming ISPOR Europe 2024. If you are curious to understand alternative approaches to MAIC, we invite you to join our presentation, “Indirect Treatment Comparison Methodology Matters: Unlocking the Essentials for Robust Analysis,” on Tuesday, 19 November, from 15:15 to 16:15 CET.

We are also showcasing a poster:
MSR108: How do STC and ML-NMR Compare in Population Adjustment for Indirect Treatment Comparisons (ITC)? Insights and Challenges (Authors: Hugo Pedder, Tushar Srivastava, Kate Ren) on 19 November, 10:30 AM to 1:30 PM CET. In this research, we have conducted an in-depth case study comparing STC and ML-NMR, revealing critical insights. 

Curious to learn more?

Join us for discussions, questions, and connection. For a more personal conversation, meet our ITC specialists, Kate Ren and Hugo Pedder, at ConnectHEOR Booth #1400!  

 

82 Responses

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Judit Banhazi

Specialty
Value and Access

Role
Vice President

Degree
MD Medicine, JD Law

Judit Banhazi

MD Medicine, JD Law

Judit Banhazi, based in Basel, Switzerland, brings over 20 years of experience in HEOR, Market Access, and Health Policy.
She has led HEOR strategies in hematology and initiated EU HTA policy activities. Judit began her career as a physician and has worked at prime global pharma companies. Her academic prowess is excellent with a peculiar combination of an MD in Medicine and a JD in Law, she has been at forefront of health economics by being involved in HTA policy discussions with EFPIA and HTAi.
Known for her collaborative spirit and practical approach, Judit is passionate about learning and delivering quality work. Outside of work, she enjoys spending time with family and friends, travelling, and running.

Nigel Seear

Specialty
Business Strategy

Role
Non-Executive Director

Degree
MSc

Nigel Seear

MSc

Nigel Seear serves as Non-Executive Director at ConnectHEOR, providing strategic guidance to support the company’s growth, positioning, and long-term vision.

With over 25 years of leadership experience across healthcare, consulting, and professional services, Nigel brings deep expertise in scaling organisations, strengthening leadership teams, and translating strategy into execution. He has held senior roles including Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer within high-growth and private equity-backed businesses, where he has consistently driven sustainable growth and operational excellence.

At ConnectHEOR, Nigel works closely with the leadership team to shape business strategy, enhance organisational effectiveness, and support the company’s evolution as a leading healthcare consulting and technology partner. His perspective combines commercial rigour with a strong focus on people and culture, enabling teams to align around clear goals and deliver meaningful impact.

In addition to his role at ConnectHEOR, Nigel is an experienced board advisor and leadership coach, supporting CEOs and executive teams in navigating complexity, accelerating growth, and building resilient, high-performing organisations.

Aris Skandemis

Specialty
HTA Health Economist

Role
Senior Consultant, Modeling & Analytics

Degree
MSc – Health Economics

Aris Skandemis

MScHealth Economics

Aris is a health economist with over seven years of experience in developing economic models for both global and local HTA settings. He holds an MSc in Health Economics from the University of York and a BSc in Pharmacy from the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. Aris has held senior positions in major health economics consultancies for several years and has worked as an HTA reviewer for the Liverpool Reviews and Implementation Group. 

Aris has extensive experience in multiple disease areas including oncology, cardiovascular, infectious, respiratory, renal, musculoskeletal and rare genetic disorders. He has led over 50 health economic projects in a wide range of markets, including US, Canada, UK and Europe. His experience covers various methodologies and settings, including large scale programs (full HTA evidence generation and submission) as well as nuanced initiatives. Aris also specializes in the development of R/R Shiny models and has drove the upskill programs of several organizations, as well as leading several successful R/R Shiny modelling projects that facilitated concrete, flexible and interactive messaging for stakeholders. 

Aris is based in Athens, Greece and enjoys playing basketball, watching movies and lounging with his dog. 

Adam Ball

Specialty
Business Development Manager

 

Adam Ball

Business Manager

I am delighted to be part of the team here at ConnectHEOR. To tell you a bit about me, I have 10 years experience within Talent Acquisition within HEOR, RWE and Market Access. I have built a global network during this time and am excited to utilize this to help us grow as business. 

 

Outside of work I love sports, playing football and squash regularly, as well as going to the gym. I also enjoy watching sports mainly football and tennis. I have a new born daughter too so she is taking up a lot of my time and is a bundle of joy. I also play drums and like to think I have a broad taste in Music.

 

Eleni Tente

Specialty
Medical writing, Evidence planning

Role
Consultant, Medical writer

Degree
PhD – Molecular biology and genetics

Eleni Tente

PhD – Molecular biology and genetics

Eleni Tente is an experienced medical writer with proven ability to translate complex scientific information into clear, concise, and impactful content to diverse audiences. She has a strong background in integrated evidence planning, publications, internal communications and e-learning development, complemented by an understanding of various therapeutic areas.

Eleni holds a PhD in molecular biology and genetics from the University of Cambridge and an MSc in plant genetic manipulation from the University of Nottingham.

In her free time, Eleni enjoys diving into a good book, fishing along the coast, or planning her next thrilling scuba diving adventure to swim with sharks.

Syed Salleh

Specialty
HTA Modelling and Discrete-event Simulation

Role
Consultant, Modeling & Analytics

Degree
PhD – Health & Related Research

Syed Salleh

PhD. Health & Related Research

Syed Salleh brings extensive experience in HTA modeling, having successfully led the development of both de novo and adaptation models for HTA listings across multiple countries, including Malaysia, Philippines, and the UK. His work spans key therapeutic franchises such as oncology, cardiometabolic, and respiratory. Syed has also delivered critical insights to healthcare professionals through MYSPOR, ITTP, and IKN virtual CME events and numerous publications.

He holds a PhD in Health and Related Research from the School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) at the University of Sheffield, UK, with a specialization in HTA and operational research, specifically in discrete-event simulation (DES) technique.

During his time in a leading pharmaceutical company, Syed played a key role in securing the listing of several key products in the Malaysia Ministry of Health Formulary and served as the primary contact for DES-related projects.

Besides work, Syed enjoys traveling, listening to music, and spending quality time with his family.

Thai-Son Tong

Specialty
Model Conceptualization and Data Analytics

Role
Senior Consultant

Degree
PhD – Health Economics

Thai-Son Tong

PhD. Health Economics

Thaison Tong has extensive work experience in health economics, decision modelling and big data analysis. He has a unique mix of experience in HEOR and RWE related research in academia and pharmaceutical industry. His expertise lies in health technology assessments (HTA), health economic modelling, simulation modelling, big data analytics and decision analysis. He has hands-on experience in a range of software and programming languages including R, R Shiny, R Markdown, Python, MS Excel, VBA, and Simul8. He has substantial experience of the health care system in the UK and other European countries.

Thaison has direct experience in building cost-effectiveness models from scratch and conducting big data analysis in several disease areas including dementia, vascular disease, and cancer.

Thaison’s PhD focus was to develop a de novo patient level model for the evaluation of different cognitive screening tests for early detection of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in primary care. He also looked at different methods for conducting economic evaluation in health care taking a broader/societal perspective. In addition, he investigated the use of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for economic evaluation.

Thaison also holds Academic Researcher position in School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), University of Sheffield, UK and Honorary Researcher position in University of Bristol, UK.

Thaison’s likes to meditate, and play badminton, basketball and tennis.

Shilpi Swami

Specialty
Consulting and strategy

Role
Vice President

Degree
MSc. International Economics

Shilpi Swami

MSc. International Economics

Shilpi Swami is an internationally recognized leader in consulting, named among the World’s Top 25 Women Leaders in Consulting 2025 – a distinction that spans the entire consulting industry. She also serves as Chair-Elect of the ISPOR Oncology Special Interest Group and is a frequent speaker at leading scientific and policy forums, where she brings clarity and authority to complex healthcare access challenges.

As Vice President of Consulting and Strategy at ConnectHEOR, Shilpi provides both scientific and strategic leadership, guiding evidence generation and market access initiatives across Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, and Australia. She has led numerous high-stakes HTA submissions and access strategies, combining methodological rigor with practical solutions that resonate with regulators, payers, and biopharma stakeholders.

Her multidimensional career – spanning academia, consulting, and biopharma equips her with a rare ability to bridge perspectives across research, policy, and industry. Previously a Research Fellow at the University of York, she contributed to advancing best practices in public health and health economics.

Shilpi is widely respected not only for her expertise but also for her people-first approach. She embodies the belief that Kindness is Cost-Effective™, demonstrating that strength in leadership comes from pairing scientific excellence with empathy, collaboration, and impact.

Hugo Pedder

Specialty Statistical Analysis and Evidence Synthesis

Role Senior Consultant

Degree PhD – Statistical Modelling

Hugo Pedder

PhD – Statistical Modelling

Hugo brings in a wealth of experience to ConnectHEOR from his extensive work in academia, focusing primarily on evidence synthesis and meta-analysis. Hugo holds PhD in Statistical Modelling from University of Briston and MSc in Medical Statistics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and his background in neuroscience remains a passionate interest. Alongside working with ConnectHEOR, Hugo continues to part of NICE committee. His expertise includes advanced indirect treatment comparisons technique and has extensive experience of working with the NICE in UK. 

Beyond professional endeavors, Hugo is an enthusiastic outdoor adventurer, particularly enjoying mountain activities, climbing and ski mountaineering. From building rafts to exploring rivers in north of Sweden, he has lived an adventurous life outside of work and plans to continue to do so.

Kunal Hriday

Specialty
AI Strategy

Role
Director

Degree
MSc. Quantitative Economics

Kunal Hriday

MSc. Quantitative Economics

Kunal Hriday is a business strategy and data science professional with experience in helping organizations crack through notorious business challenges. Kunal is proficient building scalable AI products, specialized Intelligence, automations, business analytics, product lifecycle management and business development. Working as a Data science professional he has spent time in problem solving across variety of industries including Banking, logistics and Health and is now fully dedicated to HEOR. Kunal has hands on experience in various statistical programming tools and languages.

He also holds a masters’ in Quantitative Economics from Indian Statistical Institute and a bachelors’ degree in Business Economics. Excellent in business communication, he is passionate about studying environmental economics and related theories of welfare optimization.

Kunal is trained in Indian Classical Music and finds solace in music when not at work.

Raju Gautam

Specialty
Evidence Review

Role
Principal Consultant

Degree
PhD (Pharmacy)

Raju Gautam

PhD Pharmacy

Raju Gautam spearheads evidence review at ConnectHEOR and  has extensive work experience in evidence review and synthesis, value communications, scientific publications, medical writing and project management.
His expertise lies in systematic and targeted literature reviews, meta-analyses, network meta-analyses, value communications (AMCP and Global Value Dossiers), RWE study design and publications (manuscripts, posters, and abstracts).
He has experience working in Global pharma companies, consulting and CRO environment for several therapy areas including Cardiovascular, Oncology, Neurology, Respiratory, Ophthalmic, Rare Diseases, and Vaccines. He has more than 40 publications in international journals as an author.
Raju also likes jogging, yoga and meditation.

Radha Sharma

Specialty:
Patient preference research, survey, In-depth interviews, COA, Evidence review and conceptualisation of study

Role:
Director – Patient-Centered Outcomes Research

Degree:
MBBS (Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery), PhD (Global Public Health) – University of York

Radha Sharma

PhD (Global Public Health)

Radha Sharma spearheads Patient-Centered Outcomes Research at ConnectHEOR. She has a background in medicine, public health, and epidemiology.

Her expertise includes global health research, preference elicitation, mixed-method studies, consensus workshops, qualitative health research, epidemiological analysis of big data sets, RWE study design, scientific writing, and literature reviews. Her primary focus is integrating patient perspectives into all stages of health technology assessment (HTA) and healthcare decision-making processes.

Her extensive expertise in mixed-method studies and active patient/stakeholder engagement ensures that her research is methodologically rigorous and patient-centric. Radha is an avid hiker and enjoys exploring the beautiful Canadian Rockies.

Kate Ren

Specialty
Statistical Analysis and Evidence Synthesis

Role
Director of Statistics

Degree
Ph.D Probability and Statistics

Kate Ren

PhD Probability and Statistics

Kate spearheads Statistics and Evidence Synthesis at ConnectHEOR. She has more than 10 years of experience in conducting statistical analysis in HTA. Kate has PhD in Probability and Statistics specialising in Bayesian methods in clinical trial design.

She specializes in Bayesian methods in health economics and the elicitation of experts’ beliefs and has extensive experience of conducting evidence synthesis, including, meta-analysis, network meta-analysis, MAIC, STC, ML-NMR etc. Besides working with ConnectHEOR, she is also a part of NICE Committee and University of Sheffield.

Tushar Srivastava

Specialty
Decision Modelling and AI Initiatives

Role
Director

Degree
MSc – Statistics and Computing

Tushar Srivastava

MSc – Statistics and Computing

Tushar Srivastava is a health economics and outcomes research (HEOR) leader whose journey spans academia, consulting, and the life sciences industry – bringing a rare breadth of perspective to evidence generation. Endorsed as a Global Talent by the Royal Society, UK, and holding an MSc in Statistics and Computing, he has authored numerous publications in modeling, indirect treatment comparisons, patient-centered outcomes research, evidence reviews, and AI.

He has built a reputation for uniting scientific excellence with technological innovation. From developing decision models himself to shaping and mentoring world-class modeling teams, Tushar has consistently advanced the science and practice of HEOR with a forward-looking, technology-driven vision.

At ConnectHEOR, Tushar directs HEOR activities and leads the integration of responsible AI into evidence generation. His vision is transforming the field from a human-only framework to an intelligent, interactive, and scalable hybrid intelligence framework – where human expertise works in synergy with AI.

Working diligently to improve patient lives through research and technology, he brings scientific rigor and technological foresight to projects across diverse therapy areas and health technologies, including pharmaceuticals, medical devices, diagnostics, digital health, and public health programs. His work is widely published and presented internationally, reflecting both methodological depth and innovative thinking.

He believes that Kindness is Cost-Effective™ and continues to ensure that ConnectHEOR’s science and technology are always guided by a human-centered ethos.